DRAM shipment volume in the second quarter increased significantly month on month: Samsung increased by 20, SK Hynix increased by 50

Source: Xinzhixun

    On May 24, it was reported that according to Pulse News, an English website of South Korea‘s Daily Economic News, many people in the semiconductor and security industry said that Samsung‘s DRAM shipments in the second quarter increased by 15% to 20% month on month, reversing the decline of about 10% month on month in the first quarter. SK Hynix‘s shipment volume increased by 30% to 50% month on month this quarter, far higher than the market consensus of 20%, reflecting that DRAM factories are actively reducing production and inventory, and will reverse the trend of oversupply in the market.

    Market research firm Jibang Technology has also adjusted its estimate of the magnitude of DRAM oversupply this year, from 0.9% to negative 1%; The degree of oversupply of NAND Flash has also been reduced to negative 0.5% this year, lower than the original estimate of 3%. If the relevant data is positive, it indicates an oversupply in the market. If it turns negative, it indicates insufficient supply. Jibang adjusted the relevant data, indicating that the market situation is about to turn into a shortage of supply.

    In addition, Jibang Technology predicts that the inventory days of the three major storage manufacturers, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, will decrease to an average of 13 weeks in the fourth quarter, less than the average of 16 weeks in the first quarter.

    Market analysts also attribute the shift in industry atmosphere to the industry‘s continuous inventory reduction since last year. The report points out that the number of inquiries for supply contracts from smartphone and server manufacturers has recently increased, and the demand for high value-added DRAM chips such as HBM and DDR5 is also growing.

    Jibang recently raised its average fixed transaction price forecast for 32GB DDR5 servers in the second quarter, from $75 to $80 to $90, reflecting that the demand for DDR5 is still high compared to DDR4. Samsung Securities pointed out that the price of 128GB DDR5 for AI servers is ten times higher than 64GB DDR4, and orders continue to increase, leading to a surge in demand for HBM.

    Originally, the industry generally expected that the DRAM market would gradually recover in the second half of the year. With the better than expected month on month growth rate of Samsung and SK Hynix shipments this quarter, it was revealed that the DRAM market will rebound ahead of schedule.

    According to statistical data from Jibang, Samsung and SK Hynix are the top two DRAM factories in the world, with a combined market share of over 70%. Generally speaking, when there is a turning point in the economy, top tier manufacturers will be the first to feel the relevant trends. With Samsung and SK Hynix, the two major indicator factories‘ shipment performance this season better than expected, there is a taste of "spring river water heating duck prophet", and more manufacturers will continue to feel the market situation warming up in the future.

    Previously, the price of NAND Flash market has also been rumored to rise. Changjiang Storage, a major NAND Flash chip manufacturer in Chinese Mainland, has successively adjusted the price information of customers, with a maximum increase of about 5%, which not only ended the decline for more than a year, but also at least one to two quarters earlier than the time when the market expected the price to stop falling and rebound. Nowadays, there is also a rebound in DRAM market conditions, indicating that the overall storage market is expected to bottomout.