The growth rate of China‘s distributed PV in the first three quarters exceeded the expectation that the price of silicon material stabilized or will drive the PV installation in the fourth quarter to speed up again

Source: China Power Grid

    Data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, China‘s newly increased photovoltaic installed capacity grew by more than 100% year on year, and export demand was also strong. At the end of October, in a manufacturing enterprise in Guangzhou, Guangdong, the newly installed roof photovoltaic system was officially connected to the grid for power generation. The photovoltaic panels covered 60,000 square meters of floor space, with an installed capacity of 4.8 MW. It is estimated that 4.4 million kilowatt hours of electricity can be supplied to this factory every year, meeting 40% of the factory‘s power consumption. By signing an agreement with the PV investment operator, the company only needs to provide the roof without investing capital.

     The director of the management department of an elevator motor company in Guangzhou, Guangdong, believed that the photovoltaic power generation operation period (25 years) could obtain more than 6 million yuan (yuan) of electricity discount, which could not only benefit from electricity price discount, but also guarantee energy supply in peak periods.

     Data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, a total of 52.6GW of new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was added nationwide, with a year-on-year growth of 106%, which is close to the annual new installed capacity in 2021. Among them, the new installed capacity of domestic industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic increased by 18.74GW, a year-on-year increase of 278%, accounting for 36% of the total new installed capacity of photovoltaic.

    The export performance of photovoltaic products also exceeded expectations. According to customs data, 2.955 billion solar cells were exported in the first nine months of this year, an increase of 23.3% year on year, and the export amount increased by 84.1% year on year, achieving a rise in both quantity and price.

    Liu Yiyang, deputy secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that we asked many enterprises that the small components required for distribution in Europe are almost out of stock, and we now export nearly 20 GW markets.

    Although the distributed photovoltaic continues to grow, the growth rate of centralized photovoltaic power plants, which are more price sensitive, has slowed down since this year, which is inseparable from the high price of upstream silicon materials.

    In the near future, with the price of raw materials and products gradually stabilizing, the PV installation in the fourth quarter may be further accelerated. According to the announcement issued by a silicon chip enterprise on October 31, the prices of various types of silicon chips have decreased compared with two months ago. In the past year, the price of silicon material, the raw material of silicon wafer, has risen rapidly. In October, the price of polysilicon remained at about 300,000 yuan per ton, an increase of more than four times over the lowest point last year. According to the third quarter reports disclosed by several PV industry chain enterprises, the upstream and midstream PV related enterprises benefited from the price rise of raw materials, and their net profits increased significantly.

    Industry insiders said that the high raw material prices in recent years were transmitted to the downstream, and some large photovoltaic power stations also delayed the construction progress due to high construction costs.

    According to the analysis of the insiders, if the price of PV upstream and midstream products continues to fall, the demand for centralized power stations may recover strongly in the fourth quarter, supporting the annual domestic PV new installed capacity to exceed 80GW.

    Liu Yiyang, deputy secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, pointed out that most of the expanded production capacity was slowly climbing from the fourth quarter. The price of silicon material will remain at a relatively high level, but it should enter a long-term downward channel.