Semiconductor silicon wafer is in short supply, and the price will rise all the way to 2025

    At present, the problem of global core shortage has not been effectively alleviated. With the expansion of production by major semiconductor manufacturers, the situation of semiconductor silicon wafer in short supply is also very clear. With the recent signing of long-term contracts between semiconductor silicon wafer factories and customers, the industry believes that the price will rise quarter by quarter and year by year to 2025. Moreover, the cumulative increase in this year and next year is 20-25%. The average contract price of 12 inch semiconductor silicon wafer in 2024 will reach a new high of $200 at one stroke, and the price increase and business growth cycle time will reach a new record.

    In order to solve the shortage of semiconductor production capacity, since 2020, large semiconductor manufacturers including Intel, TSMC and Samsung have actively built new wafer factories to expand production capacity. Capital expenditure has reached a new high for three consecutive years, and the new production capacity will be opened in the second half of this year. However, the last business cycle peak of the semiconductor silicon wafer market appeared in the second half of 2019. It was not until the second half of 2021 that it came out of the bottom of the cycle and entered the growth cycle again. At the same time, since the semiconductor wafer factory basically did not expand a new factory in the previous three years, it has only expanded its production since the second half of last year. However, it takes a long time to expand its production capacity, and the existing production capacity still can not meet the overall demand of the semiconductor factory, which is the key reason for the shortage of semiconductor wafers this time.

    Including the Japanese SUMCO, Shin-Etsu, China Taiwan global wafer and other three world‘s top silicon wafer manufacturers, signed a long contract with customers since the second half of last year. Among them, the global wafer capacity before 2024 has been sold out, and the capacity has been booked by customers in 2026. Although the three major semiconductor wafer factories have received advance payment from customers and launched a large-scale production expansion plan, the new semiconductor wafer factory (Greenfield) will not be able to mass produce until 2024 at the earliest. Therefore, before the new production capacity is opened, the supply of semiconductor wafers will exceed the demand and the price will rise year by year.